Your Account
Community
Topics (Upcoming)
More |
View story
Fallacies when thinking about the economics of future technology
http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2008/08/fallacies-when-think...
Submitted by
transfuture
12 months, 1 week, 1 day, 23 hours agoFuture technologies seem so impactful and fabulous that it is easy to jump to incorrect conclusions about what things would be like with their advent.
Fallacy #1: Molecular assemblers will have a worldwide overnight rollout
The conventional assumption is that once humans are able to make one molecular assembler, it will be able to self-replicate, and therefore within twenty-four hours everyone worldwide will have one. It is far more likely that a molecular assembler would follow the usual s-curve adoption pattern of any other newtech; early versions are expensive and clunky with minimal functionality, continued improvement iterations make the newtech more relevant and usable.
The first molecular assemblers may be like a next generation 3d printer, printing the T-shirt a friend sent as an email attachment. Only early adopters will have the utility (read: money and interest) to purchase the first molecular assemblers. Also, the first molecular assemblers will not be able to self-replicate as the intricate molecular manufacturing processes will need to be conducted at special facilities.
|
